The credit markets might not be quite as squeezed as they have been recently, thanks to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. But they're hardly back to normal.
In two signs of continued strain, a key bank-to-bank lending rate rose Thursday and the amount of commercial paper in the market fell for the fourth straight week to 15 percent below the level before the investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy.
While lending doesn't appear to be in the same seized-up state as last week, the year-end could prove a difficult time for funding as banks and other institutions try to get their books in order, said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis at Action Economics.
"It looks like the central bank's actions are starting to help marginally improve confidence enough where safe haven isn't the only thing on investors' minds," Rupert said. "But it's only one small step so far. It's going to be a very jagged type of improvement. There's still a lot of factors that are going to keep anxiety at elevated levels."
The London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, for three-month dollar loans rose to 4.75 percent from 4.52 percent on Wednesday. Just a month ago, three-month Libor was at 2.81 percent.
That stubbornly high Libor is just one of the reasons that the stock market has been tumbling. When banks are loath to lend, a weak economy has a hard time bouncing back. The Dow Jones industrial average sank nearly 679 points on Thursday to the lowest level in five years.
Libor's sharp jump over the past month is worrisome because consumer loans such as adjustable-rate mortgages are tied to Libor — meaning that those mortgages could become harder to pay. Citigroup analysts recently predicted that continued stress in Libor will result in a 10 percent jump in defaults for outstanding non-delinquent adjustable-rate mortgages when they reset.
Libor for overnight dollar loans slipped to 5.09 percent Thursday from 5.38 percent, but still remains extremely high — especially compared to the target Fed funds rate, a key overnight lending rate that the Federal Reserve slashed Wednesday by a half-point to 1.5 percent.
Meanwhile, commercial paper outstanding dropped for the fourth straight week. Commercial paper is a type of debt companies sell to get short-term cash, often so that they can maintain their inventories and payrolls. The Fed said commercial paper outstanding fell by $56.4 billion to a seasonally-adjusted $1.55 trillion in the week ended Oct. 8 — that's down from $1.82 billion on Sept. 10, and down 30 percent from the peak of $2.2 trillion in the summer of 2007.
As companies have a harder time getting financing, businesses and municipalities have been taking action to try to adapt. Connecticut's governor is requesting that banks statewide to contribute at least $1 million each to a lending pool for small businesses. And Apollo Management LP is offering a $540 million capital infusion to its affiliate Hexion Specialty Chemicals to help Hexion close its takeover of Huntsman Corp; Hexion said it doubted that Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group AG would provide financing.
Automakers and dealers have been especially hard hit by the double-whammy of a slow economy and squeezed credit. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Thursday put General Motors Corp. and its 49 percent-owned finance affiliate GMAC LLC on negative credit watch. It also put Ford Motor Co. on negative credit watch. That means there is a 50 percent chance that S&P will lower the ratings on these companies in the next three months; S&P said that while their liquidity is adequate now, deteriorating conditions could challenge their liquidity in 2009.
There were a few promising signs that the stranglehold on the credit markets is starting to loosen, at least in some areas.
One was that the recent drop in commercial paper was smaller than the $94.9 billion decline in the previous week, and the $61 billion decrease in the week ended Sept. 24. And last week's decline occurred in financial companies' commercial paper and asset-backed commercial paper — commercial paper issued by non-financial companies edged higher overall.
"We're still seeing a lot of investments in overnights and very short maturities," said Alex Roever, a fixed-income analyst with JPMorgan. "The really strong financial and non-financial names — top tier corporations — are seeing stronger interest in one-month, two-month, three-month paper. It's definitely better than where it was a week or so ago."
Moreover, following the Fed's Tuesday decision to buy commercial paper and Wednesday's move to slash the key interest rate, the rates on certain overnight commercial paper fell by 1.15 percentage points on Thursday to 2.35 percent, noted Miller Tabak & Co. analyst Tony Crescenzi.
And IBM Corp. was able to sell $3.9 billion in longer-term bonds on the market Thursday after posting better-than-expected profits.
But investors are still anxious. The yield on the three-month Treasury bill initially edged up on Thursday, but then slipped to 0.58 percent from 0.63 percent late Wednesday. That suggests that demand for T-bills, regarded by investors as the safest assets around, remains high. The discount rate was also 0.58 percent.
Longer-term Treasury yields were mixed after the stock market's plunge.
In late trading, the 2-year Treasury note rose 1/32 to 100 28/32 and yielded 1.55 percent, down from 1.56 percent late Wednesday. The 10-year note fell 28/32 to 101 30/32 and yielded 3.76 percent, up from 3.65 percent. The 30-year bond fell 1 25/32 to 106 31/32 and yielded 4.09 percent, up from 4.05 percent.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Federal Reserve cuts rates
Federal Reserve cuts in the federal funds rate have an unpredictable impact on long-term mortgage rates. So it's impossible to know for sure when -- or even if -- rates will fall as a result of the Fed's emergency rate cut.
How soon could it affect you?
Impossible to know
Fixed-rate mortgages usually do not change in response to cuts in the federal funds rate. However, adjustable-rate mortgages may be more sensitive to Federal Reserve rate decisions, especially if the spread between the federal funds rate and the London Interbank Offered Rate -- more commonly known as LIBOR -- narrows.
Depending on the exact nature of their mortgage, some people with ARMs may see their rate adjust downward the next time the mortgage resets.
How soon could it affect you?
Impossible to know
Fixed-rate mortgages usually do not change in response to cuts in the federal funds rate. However, adjustable-rate mortgages may be more sensitive to Federal Reserve rate decisions, especially if the spread between the federal funds rate and the London Interbank Offered Rate -- more commonly known as LIBOR -- narrows.
Depending on the exact nature of their mortgage, some people with ARMs may see their rate adjust downward the next time the mortgage resets.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
buying billions of dollars in bad mortgages
The $700-billion financial industry bailout that became law Friday could make a recession shallower, and potentially even shorter, but it won’t stop the economic and housing downturns in their tracks, according to economists and other experts.
And homeowners, consumers and job seekers who are in financial trouble won’t see a quick fix to their own problems, either, the experts said.
The economic package, which President George W. Bush signed into law less than two hours after the U.S. House of Representatives passed it, authorizes the federal government to buy billions of dollars in bad mortgages and other debt, taking the troubled loans off the books of financial firms.
Supporters say the taxpayer-funded bailout will free up credit markets and allow banks to lend again. Eventually, they hope, the government will resell the assets.
The bill’s passage and signing came five days after the House rejected the bailout, leading to a week of financial market turmoil. Since then, the bill was sweetened with $110 billion in tax breaks and added spending and an increase in deposit insurance limits.
The bailout also contains provisions to help stem the foreclosure crisis, a critical step before the housing market-and perhaps the nation’s economy as a whole-can rebound. But foreclosure experts say neither the bailout nor programs already in existence will do enough, and they urge a completely different approach to helping those at risk of losing their homes.
“We still don’t see enough specifics in this bill to be sure neighborhoods will benefit from this instead of Wall Street,” said Alan Fisher, executive director of the California Reinvestment Coalition, a group of community-based organizations that lately has focused on preventing foreclosures. “Why not say, ‘Stop right now, don’t foreclose on any more people, let’s find a way to solve these problems.’ “
Foreclosed houses typically drive down neighborhood property values, making it more likely that owners of nearby homes will end up owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Some of those people will stop making mortgage and property tax payments, continuing the downward spiral.
For the nation’s economy, the importance of stopping the spiral is “enormous,” said Tim Canova, professor of international economic law at the Chapman University School of Law, in Orange, California. “If you don’t take care of the bottom of the pyramid, it’ll be like quicksand, pulling down the top.”
The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act approved by Congress last week and signed by President Bush on Friday contains broad language requiring the Treasury Department to develop a plan to “mitigate” foreclosures. It also requires federal agencies to encourage mortgage companies to modify the loans of borrowers in danger of foreclosure.
That step comes on top of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act, passed by Congress in July, which created the Hope for Homeowners program, a government-insured refinancing option for strapped homeowners whose homes are worth less than they owe their lenders. The July legislation also included a tax credit for first-time home buyers, and money for governments to implement foreclosure-mitigation efforts of their own.
But these moves have not convinced critics that enough is being done to prevent foreclosures.
About two weeks ago, Fisher’s organization sent a letter to congressional leaders, imploring them, “Do not spend $700 billion on the wrong people.” Instead, the group urged Congress to impose a six-month freeze on new foreclosures and reform the bankruptcy code to allow more people to avoid foreclosure.
They are not alone.
San Jose bankruptcy attorney Ike Shulman, who is also the legislative chair for the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys, also urged changes to bankruptcy law, arguing that judges should be allowed to reduce the amount of debt bankruptcy filers owe on mortgages for their primary residences.
“Whatever arrangement the (bailout) bill makes for the Treasury to buy or take over servicing the loans, it does not empower the agency to do a restructuring that would reduce the amount on the loan,” he said. Instead, the government will encourage mortgage companies on a voluntary basis to either modify loans for borrowers in danger of foreclosure, or refinance their loans under the Hope for Homeowners plan.
Bankruptcy court judges already have the power to reduce debts owed on vacation homes, cars or boats, and structure repayment plans based on the lower amount. Shulman said allowing the same treatment for mortgages on primary residences would help many people avoid foreclosure.
“All the noise that’s being made about ‘They want to help homeowners,’ and they missed the best opportunity to do so,” Shulman said, referring to Congress. A provision echoing the bankruptcy attorneys’ proposal failed to make it into the final version of the bailout bill, despite the support of many legislators.
A spokesman for the Federal Housing Administration said it was too early to assess whether the bailout would help the housing market.
But the Help for Homeowners program, which went into effect Wednesday, should help as many as 400,000 “underwater” homeowners, said Bill Glavin, special assistant to the FHA commissioner. Under the program, some borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are now worth can refinance, with their lenders’ cooperation, into smaller loans, helping many homeowners avoid foreclosure, Glavin said.
What’s more, even as the bill passed, the U.S. Labor Department announced the nation lost 159,000 jobs in September, and an increasing number of economists suggested the nation might already be in recession, or is likely headed that way-bailout or no bailout.
“It can’t keep us from having a recession; it’ll just keep it from becoming much worse,” University of Maryland business professor Peter Morici said.
And investors weren’t calmed by the bailout, as the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 157 points Friday.
“Everything was a wild swing,” said trader Bob McConnell, of Brooklyn, after the market closed Friday, who suggested the bailout wouldn’t work right away. “Every day will be a surprise.”
Even if the bailout gives consumers a bit of psychological relief, that won’t translate into new spending or even more confidence, experts said.
The Treasury Department is going to hire asset management firms, along with lawyers, bankers and others. It won’t be easy to value the troubled mortgages, but experts said an announcement of auctions and pricing plans could come within a few weeks.
As that happens, credit should begin to loosen a bit, economists said. As banks lend to each other again, they’ll also open their purse-strings to other businesses, and, eventually, to consumers seeking mortgages and car loans. Lenders may also be able to help homeowners in foreclosure, experts said.
“It provides confidence that a lot of these companies having real issues are going to be around tomorrow and the next day and next week and next month and next year,” added economist Joel Naroff, who heads Naroff Economic Advisors in Pennsylvania. “But it’s going to take a while for the financial institutions to get healthy again and while this is going to help, it doesn’t mean conditions are going to turn on a dime.”
What’s more, the bailout cannot solve the housing market’s broader troubles-or, for that matter, the economic downturn, said New York University economics professor Lawrence White.
“I think unfortunately we’ve still got a little more of a distance to go in housing,” said White, who suggested the bottom could come by late spring. White noted that other sectors, such as commercial real estate and credit card lending, could still see their own trouble, too.
Nonetheless, experts universally agreed that the bailout was necessary to at least start the process of finding the bottom-and a way out.
“This isn’t a quick fix and it doesn’t make us whole,” said Jonathan Miller, an appraiser with Miller Samuel in Manhattan. “What it does do is start moving the glacier in the right direction.”
And homeowners, consumers and job seekers who are in financial trouble won’t see a quick fix to their own problems, either, the experts said.
The economic package, which President George W. Bush signed into law less than two hours after the U.S. House of Representatives passed it, authorizes the federal government to buy billions of dollars in bad mortgages and other debt, taking the troubled loans off the books of financial firms.
Supporters say the taxpayer-funded bailout will free up credit markets and allow banks to lend again. Eventually, they hope, the government will resell the assets.
The bill’s passage and signing came five days after the House rejected the bailout, leading to a week of financial market turmoil. Since then, the bill was sweetened with $110 billion in tax breaks and added spending and an increase in deposit insurance limits.
The bailout also contains provisions to help stem the foreclosure crisis, a critical step before the housing market-and perhaps the nation’s economy as a whole-can rebound. But foreclosure experts say neither the bailout nor programs already in existence will do enough, and they urge a completely different approach to helping those at risk of losing their homes.
“We still don’t see enough specifics in this bill to be sure neighborhoods will benefit from this instead of Wall Street,” said Alan Fisher, executive director of the California Reinvestment Coalition, a group of community-based organizations that lately has focused on preventing foreclosures. “Why not say, ‘Stop right now, don’t foreclose on any more people, let’s find a way to solve these problems.’ “
Foreclosed houses typically drive down neighborhood property values, making it more likely that owners of nearby homes will end up owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Some of those people will stop making mortgage and property tax payments, continuing the downward spiral.
For the nation’s economy, the importance of stopping the spiral is “enormous,” said Tim Canova, professor of international economic law at the Chapman University School of Law, in Orange, California. “If you don’t take care of the bottom of the pyramid, it’ll be like quicksand, pulling down the top.”
The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act approved by Congress last week and signed by President Bush on Friday contains broad language requiring the Treasury Department to develop a plan to “mitigate” foreclosures. It also requires federal agencies to encourage mortgage companies to modify the loans of borrowers in danger of foreclosure.
That step comes on top of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act, passed by Congress in July, which created the Hope for Homeowners program, a government-insured refinancing option for strapped homeowners whose homes are worth less than they owe their lenders. The July legislation also included a tax credit for first-time home buyers, and money for governments to implement foreclosure-mitigation efforts of their own.
But these moves have not convinced critics that enough is being done to prevent foreclosures.
About two weeks ago, Fisher’s organization sent a letter to congressional leaders, imploring them, “Do not spend $700 billion on the wrong people.” Instead, the group urged Congress to impose a six-month freeze on new foreclosures and reform the bankruptcy code to allow more people to avoid foreclosure.
They are not alone.
San Jose bankruptcy attorney Ike Shulman, who is also the legislative chair for the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys, also urged changes to bankruptcy law, arguing that judges should be allowed to reduce the amount of debt bankruptcy filers owe on mortgages for their primary residences.
“Whatever arrangement the (bailout) bill makes for the Treasury to buy or take over servicing the loans, it does not empower the agency to do a restructuring that would reduce the amount on the loan,” he said. Instead, the government will encourage mortgage companies on a voluntary basis to either modify loans for borrowers in danger of foreclosure, or refinance their loans under the Hope for Homeowners plan.
Bankruptcy court judges already have the power to reduce debts owed on vacation homes, cars or boats, and structure repayment plans based on the lower amount. Shulman said allowing the same treatment for mortgages on primary residences would help many people avoid foreclosure.
“All the noise that’s being made about ‘They want to help homeowners,’ and they missed the best opportunity to do so,” Shulman said, referring to Congress. A provision echoing the bankruptcy attorneys’ proposal failed to make it into the final version of the bailout bill, despite the support of many legislators.
A spokesman for the Federal Housing Administration said it was too early to assess whether the bailout would help the housing market.
But the Help for Homeowners program, which went into effect Wednesday, should help as many as 400,000 “underwater” homeowners, said Bill Glavin, special assistant to the FHA commissioner. Under the program, some borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are now worth can refinance, with their lenders’ cooperation, into smaller loans, helping many homeowners avoid foreclosure, Glavin said.
What’s more, even as the bill passed, the U.S. Labor Department announced the nation lost 159,000 jobs in September, and an increasing number of economists suggested the nation might already be in recession, or is likely headed that way-bailout or no bailout.
“It can’t keep us from having a recession; it’ll just keep it from becoming much worse,” University of Maryland business professor Peter Morici said.
And investors weren’t calmed by the bailout, as the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 157 points Friday.
“Everything was a wild swing,” said trader Bob McConnell, of Brooklyn, after the market closed Friday, who suggested the bailout wouldn’t work right away. “Every day will be a surprise.”
Even if the bailout gives consumers a bit of psychological relief, that won’t translate into new spending or even more confidence, experts said.
The Treasury Department is going to hire asset management firms, along with lawyers, bankers and others. It won’t be easy to value the troubled mortgages, but experts said an announcement of auctions and pricing plans could come within a few weeks.
As that happens, credit should begin to loosen a bit, economists said. As banks lend to each other again, they’ll also open their purse-strings to other businesses, and, eventually, to consumers seeking mortgages and car loans. Lenders may also be able to help homeowners in foreclosure, experts said.
“It provides confidence that a lot of these companies having real issues are going to be around tomorrow and the next day and next week and next month and next year,” added economist Joel Naroff, who heads Naroff Economic Advisors in Pennsylvania. “But it’s going to take a while for the financial institutions to get healthy again and while this is going to help, it doesn’t mean conditions are going to turn on a dime.”
What’s more, the bailout cannot solve the housing market’s broader troubles-or, for that matter, the economic downturn, said New York University economics professor Lawrence White.
“I think unfortunately we’ve still got a little more of a distance to go in housing,” said White, who suggested the bottom could come by late spring. White noted that other sectors, such as commercial real estate and credit card lending, could still see their own trouble, too.
Nonetheless, experts universally agreed that the bailout was necessary to at least start the process of finding the bottom-and a way out.
“This isn’t a quick fix and it doesn’t make us whole,” said Jonathan Miller, an appraiser with Miller Samuel in Manhattan. “What it does do is start moving the glacier in the right direction.”
Monday, October 6, 2008
Biker ordinances is doing it's job
As the 2008 Fall Bike Rally came to an end Sunday, many bikers said it would be their last trip to the Grand Strand, after the city of Myrtle Beach passed 15 ordinances aimed at ridding all bike rallies from the city limits.
Vendors said the new ordinances, only three of which were being enforced this week, have hampered turnout.
Some vendors felt the business was dead compared to the years before while others said they might come back, they would avoid Myrtle Beach and boycott any businesses within the city limits.
Official attendance numbers should be out later this week.
Local residents will review the impact the new ordinances had and how they can be better enforced during the spring rallies.
Vendors said the new ordinances, only three of which were being enforced this week, have hampered turnout.
Some vendors felt the business was dead compared to the years before while others said they might come back, they would avoid Myrtle Beach and boycott any businesses within the city limits.
Official attendance numbers should be out later this week.
Local residents will review the impact the new ordinances had and how they can be better enforced during the spring rallies.
Fall Biker business is down 30 or 40 percent
Is it because gas prices or the number of ordinances against the bikers? Local business owners are telling us, the number of bikers at the Fall rally this year are down.
Normally the Suck Bang Blow parking lot in Murrell's Inlet is packed for the Fall bike rally, but not this year.
A manager of the bar said he seen his share of bike rallies and said this turnout is dissappointing. He understands a lot has to do with the economy, but it's so far off from last year's numbers that the only thing we can allocate it to is Myrtle Beach.
In the city of Myrtle Beach, where noise and nuisance road laws recently went into effect the bar business is down 30 or 40 percent.
Whether they disagree with the city of Myrtle Beach's new ordinances against motorcycles, or they're simply trying to save the cash, local business owner Joe said this year's Fall bike rally isn't exactly revving his economic engine.
Though biker business may not be booming as much usual this weekend, merchants said they're glad to have any tourism money right now.
Normally the Suck Bang Blow parking lot in Murrell's Inlet is packed for the Fall bike rally, but not this year.
A manager of the bar said he seen his share of bike rallies and said this turnout is dissappointing. He understands a lot has to do with the economy, but it's so far off from last year's numbers that the only thing we can allocate it to is Myrtle Beach.
In the city of Myrtle Beach, where noise and nuisance road laws recently went into effect the bar business is down 30 or 40 percent.
Whether they disagree with the city of Myrtle Beach's new ordinances against motorcycles, or they're simply trying to save the cash, local business owner Joe said this year's Fall bike rally isn't exactly revving his economic engine.
Though biker business may not be booming as much usual this weekend, merchants said they're glad to have any tourism money right now.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Can anyone get a loan to buy a home? Yes
In the wake of recent market turmoil, I’ve been asked the question more than once.
“Can anyone get a loan to buy a home?”
The answer to these questions is yes.
People with good credit can get loans. If they are getting a conventional loan, their down payment requirement is likely to be higher than it might have been two years ago. A buyer with good credit and 10-20 percent down should not have any problems.
Based on the appraisal and the buyer’s credit score, it may be possible to put a little as 5 percent down on a conforming conventional loan.
FHA loans have seen a big resurgence, largely because it is possible to put as little as 3-3.5 percent down, provided the buyer has the income and credit to qualify for the loan.
In the first half of 2008, FHA loan made up 12 percent of the area sale. Interestingly enough over the same time frame for those three years buyers paying cash consistently was 13-15 percent of our market.
Even with all the market gyrations interest rates are still excellent, hovering around 6 percent for a 30-year fixed rate loan.
This translates into the following principal and interest payment:
Loan amount Payment
$100,000 $ 599.55
$150,000 $899.33
$200,000 $1,199.10
$250,000 $1,498.88
$300,000 $1,798.65
$350,000 $2,098.43
$400,000 $2,398.10
You would need to add 1/12 of the annual insurance premium, property tax and any required mortgage insurance premium to these numbers to get a complete PITIM payment.
Here we are on the cusp of the fourth quarter. What can we expect in terms of sales and availability from now to the first of the year?
Currently there are approximately 5,566 single-family detached homes active in the Myrtle Beach marketplace.
This does not includes another 469 manufactures, and modular homes also available.
Currently there are approximately 6608 active condos and townhomes for sale in the same Myrtle Beach market area.
The message is clear. For-sale availability is excellent and financing is available for those with good credit and some cash down payment to work with.
Interest rates are very affordable.
Home prices continue to be stable. Buyers are still out buying homes. Certainly there are some trouble spots with foreclosures or homes that need a tremendous amount of work. Those with the money, patience and expertise to remodel are likely to be well rewarded.
“Can anyone get a loan to buy a home?”
The answer to these questions is yes.
People with good credit can get loans. If they are getting a conventional loan, their down payment requirement is likely to be higher than it might have been two years ago. A buyer with good credit and 10-20 percent down should not have any problems.
Based on the appraisal and the buyer’s credit score, it may be possible to put a little as 5 percent down on a conforming conventional loan.
FHA loans have seen a big resurgence, largely because it is possible to put as little as 3-3.5 percent down, provided the buyer has the income and credit to qualify for the loan.
In the first half of 2008, FHA loan made up 12 percent of the area sale. Interestingly enough over the same time frame for those three years buyers paying cash consistently was 13-15 percent of our market.
Even with all the market gyrations interest rates are still excellent, hovering around 6 percent for a 30-year fixed rate loan.
This translates into the following principal and interest payment:
Loan amount Payment
$100,000 $ 599.55
$150,000 $899.33
$200,000 $1,199.10
$250,000 $1,498.88
$300,000 $1,798.65
$350,000 $2,098.43
$400,000 $2,398.10
You would need to add 1/12 of the annual insurance premium, property tax and any required mortgage insurance premium to these numbers to get a complete PITIM payment.
Here we are on the cusp of the fourth quarter. What can we expect in terms of sales and availability from now to the first of the year?
Currently there are approximately 5,566 single-family detached homes active in the Myrtle Beach marketplace.
This does not includes another 469 manufactures, and modular homes also available.
Currently there are approximately 6608 active condos and townhomes for sale in the same Myrtle Beach market area.
The message is clear. For-sale availability is excellent and financing is available for those with good credit and some cash down payment to work with.
Interest rates are very affordable.
Home prices continue to be stable. Buyers are still out buying homes. Certainly there are some trouble spots with foreclosures or homes that need a tremendous amount of work. Those with the money, patience and expertise to remodel are likely to be well rewarded.
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